Monetization of uncertainty

21 октября, 2021 от Kinok Выкл



But there are among them and not so widely well-known entrepreneurs. it

One of these rare immadzhinavtov — theorists, a venture Internet business pioneer


Responding to this question, Neuman constructed a new concept.

The main thing in this theory is the construction

Under the uncertainty here meant

Paradox Ellsberg.

You are asked to take a ball from any urn. If he is red, you won $ 100, if black, do not get anything.

What kind of urn you choose?

Most people prefer the first, because It knows the ratio of red and black balls.

Moreover, if they are then given a second chance, but they will say that they will win $ 100 dollars, if a black ball stretches this time, they will still prefer the first urn. And this is not some preconceived view of how many balls of each color is in the second urn.

Let us ask yourself — why people open their own companies and become entrepreneurs, and not just get to work?

And then people create their small companies in the industries, where the mass of the same firms already works, and no one has special competitive advantages.

Those who earn a lot do it, disturbing the status quo. They introduce innovations — innovations that allow them to receive

Alas, not for a long time. High-profile with time leaves. Competitors are guessing how to earn extra money, imitate innovor. When this happens, the simulators go to the market and compete with an innovator. As a result, the ultra-profile in Novator gradually disappears.

Such uncertainty is called

One of these uncertainties should be filled with «moat around the startup», as the medieval faeds did, filling the rye with water around their locks. Then competitors will be much more difficult to force the «ditch» and get into the «castle» of your business to copy your innovation.

Forecasting is based either on inductive or on deductive arguments: the first requires data, and the second — understanding of the process leading to the desired result.


· How will their new flight technology work?

· How much time and money will need to evoke the possibility of bringing technology to a commercial level?

· Can I have improved this technology over time?

Etc. etc.

Uncertainty of complexity

At the end of the XIX century, it was so with the «War of currents», when it was impossible to predict that it would be the standard: Edison’s permanent current or alternating current of the Westingauus. Nowadays, such a situation is repeated, for example, in the context of the «War of Standards 5G».

Especially strong uncertainty of complexity makes it difficult to predict the evolution of new markets. Why, for example, «extinct» markets of writing machines, pagers and faxes? Who knew that the iPhone was so evolving, what would cease to be a phone, and will turn into an information and communication prosthesis of a person?

That. First you need to decide on the type of uncertainty of your startup. Usually, companies engaged in new technologies have the complexity of novelty, and companies that create new markets are characterized by the uncertainty of complexity.

I will not try to summarize this nontrivial and most important part of Jerry Neumanna’s concept. Those who wish will read themselves in the original. I will give only her key idea.

An old saying says that

With the construction of «regions of uncertainty» is similar.

So did all the most successful companies: from Apple to Tesla.

And if your startup is worth it, it will ensure a long period of obtaining super-profile. Well, if you learn «ditch» to periodically deepen and strengthen its walls, it is possible as Apple (international grandmaster in the construction of the RVs) to draw superprints to decades.

Thanks for watching! Put husky I.