Bidden Buffer?21 октября, 2021
Today, when the «Taliban» took control of the whole of Afghanistan, the world is perplexed: how could President Biden fumbled, saying on July 8th:
How could this be told by the president of the superpower, with access to, seemingly secret information from the most advanced analysts of one of the coolest exploration of the world?
Maybe the fact is that Biden is just burdock? Or are some idiots sit in the CIA?
The fact is that when assessing the risks of decisions made, policies (A) rely on the forecasts of intelligence analysts, but at the same time (b) do not understand what is behind the specific values of the probabilities specified in these forecasts.
Ведь что имел в виду Байден, говоря “highly unlikely” во фразе “But the likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.”?
And if you think that Biden meant something like 5%, then you are very mistaken.
For another half a century ago, NATO intelligence was set as a sacramental issue —
The study has shown them.
✔- Analysts and intelligence officers are also people. And people have very vague and instant ideas about probability. Because of this, someone perceives the likelihood of the likelihood of «Highly Unlikely», as 5%. The other is as 20%, and the third is less than 40%.
✔️ politicians and generals are also people. And they have ideas about probability even worse. Therefore, after reading the exploration in the exploration, the rating «Highly Unlikely» (written by an analyst that estimates this probability is less than 40%), the policy easily can interpret it, as a probability, less than 5%).
Information for thinking
The attached figure shows the scatter of people’s representations about the ratio of numerical and verbal probability ratings:
The authors of the NATO intelligence study came to this conclusion:
After this study passed half a century. Do you think something has changed? Unfortunately no.